Search results

Purpose – The purpose of this chapter is twofold: to forecast gross domestic product (GDP) using nonparametric method, known as multivariate k-nearest neighbors method, and to provide asymptotic properties for this method.

Methodology/approach – We consider monthly and quarterly macroeconomic variables, and to match the quarterly GDP, we estimate the missing monthly economic variables using multivariate k-nearest neighbors method and parametric vector autoregressive (VAR) modeling. Then linking these monthly macroeconomic variables through the use of bridge equations, we can produce nowcasting and forecasting of GDP.

Findings – Using multivariate k-nearest neighbors method, we provide a forecast of the euro area monthly economic indicator and quarterly GDP, which is better than that obtained with a competitive linear VAR modeling. We also provide the asymptotic normality of this k-nearest neighbors regression estimator for dependent time series, as a confidence interval for point forecast in time series.

Originality/value of chapter – We provide a new theoretical result for nonparametric method and propose a novel methodology for forecasting using macroeconomic data.

During the global financial crisis of 2008–2009, most developed and emerging economies and financial markets have recorded important financial losses. Those economies have experienced momentous corrections, and their assets were significantly devaluated, implying many losses and bankruptcies for banks, investors, and firms. Overall, despite continuing efforts made by governments and central banks to support their financial systems, most financial markets (stock markets, derivative markets, monetary markets, and currency markets) have been strongly affected by this crisis. Furthermore, the rapid transmission of the US subprime crisis to several European and Asian developed and emerging countries and the transformation into a global financial and economic crisis have revealed a high level of financial integration and linkage with the US market. The financial shocks have also induced negative feedbacks to macroeconomic indicators, suggesting significant relationships between financial markets and macroeconomies.